The forecast funnel

By Chris Bedford – Sailing Weather Service Chris Bedford is the world’s leading meteorologist for the sport of sailing. Chris currently serves as the meteorologist for American Magic, the New York Yacht Club entry in the 36th America’s Cup. With over thirty years of experience in marine and coastal meteorology, Chris has consulted with thousandsContinue reading “The forecast funnel”

A Philosophy of Weather Forecasting

By Chris Bedford, Sailing Weather Service Chris Bedford is the world’s leading meteorologist for the sport of sailing. Chris currently serves as the meteorologist for American Magic, the New York Yacht Club entry in the 36th America’s Cup. With over thirty years of experience in marine and coastal meteorology, Chris has consulted with thousands ofContinue reading “A Philosophy of Weather Forecasting”

Model grid interpolations – an aid to precipitation forecasting

By Matt Gallagher Forecasting precipitation, as you’ve seen, is really challenging when attempting to forecast for a specific point. Forecasts are generally good for an area – e.g. it’s likely to rain in Chicago on a given day with a 70% probability, but that doesn’t really help with coming up with a forecast for aContinue reading “Model grid interpolations – an aid to precipitation forecasting”

Verifying the May 18 forecast

We’re working on verifying the forecast and will post results and standings this afternoon, but for those of you who want to check yourselves, the data is online. Each NWS Office has a slightly different layout for their webpage, but in general you can find “text products” somewhere on the page. For Chicago NWS (KLOT),Continue reading “Verifying the May 18 forecast”

Verifying the noon wind at KORD

By Matt Gallagher Well, today sure is turning out to be challenging for a first day for the contest!  The weather at KORD has been a bit unsettled, to say the least.  We won’t know until tomorrow how our forecasts turned out when the Daily Climatology Report is issued, but if you want to follow along inContinue reading “Verifying the noon wind at KORD”

Preview for May 18, 2020 – KORD

By Matt Gallagher Good morning everyone! Our first forecast is due tonight, May 17, at 00 UTC (technically May 18), or 7 pm Sunday Chicago time.  Here’s a preview of the setup for tomorrow. The WPC shows Sunday’s storms largely having cleared to the east Monday morning though the threat of precipitation is still very realContinue reading “Preview for May 18, 2020 – KORD”

MOS is Boss

By Matt Gallagher  Most of you are probably familiar with weather models. For those of you who are not, weather models such as the GFS, NAM, Euro, CMC and others attempt to ‘solve’ for the state of the atmosphere by taking an assumed initial state of the atmosphere and then using computer power to simulateContinue reading “MOS is Boss”